Optimism (op) 
Wintermute plans to foray into the on-chain prediction market, with its first betting pool focused on the U.S. presidential elections.
The crypto trading firm and market maker Wintermute has disclosed ongoing work on an on-chain betting platform, OutcomeMarket. The decentralized protocol will utilize Oracle technology from Chaos Labs to handle pricing and risk management.
According to the announcement, Wintermute’s prediction platform will launch with two tokens: TRUMP and HARRIS, representing the Republican and Democratic U.S. presidential candidates.
OutcomeMarket is set to debut on major blockchain networks like Ethereum, Coinbase’s Base, and the layer-2 chain Arbitrum. The web3 startup added that tokens will appear across decentralized finance ecosystems and exchanges to enhance the trading experience.
Expanding Utility and Accessibility
Tokens via OutcomeMarket will be usable in DeFi and listed on multiple trading venues, expanding utility and improving accessibility for a broader audience. This move aims to attract both seasoned investors and newcomers to the cryptocurrency and prediction market space.
Wintermute’s New U.S. Election Prediction Platform
Wintermute is developing a permissionless smart contract for a new U.S. presidential election prediction market. The market will be accessible across Ethereum, Base, and Arbitrum, supported by Chaos Labs’ Edge Proofs Oracle.
“Own your outcome with OutcomeMarket”
Debuting with two tokens, TRUMP and HARRIS, Wintermute aims to provide a decentralized and transparent platform for election predictions.
Potential Competition and Regulatory Scrutiny
Wintermute’s latest venture could look to take market share from Polymarket, one of the largest on-chain outcome betting platforms, with over $1 billion in election-related wagers. Despite regulatory challenges, Polymarket has established itself as a significant player in the market.
Bloomberg has integrated Polymarket’s election data into its terminal, further legitimizing decentralized prediction markets. This collaboration occurred despite regulations preventing U.S. bettors from using Polymarket.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has taken a firm stance against election betting contracts, arguing that big-money wagers may influence outcomes. CFTC lawyers have attempted to delay Kalshi from listing its prediction market, but a judge overruled it. Still, the regulator continues to challenge Kalshi in court.
“In a Sept. 17 speech at Georgetown University, CFTC chair Rostin Behnam said the watchdog would also scrutinize offshore betting platforms with U.S. users. Behnam emphasized that the agency’s proposed ban on prediction markets is part of a fight against what it views as illegal activity and market manipulation.”
Wintermute’s entry into the prediction market comes at a time of increased regulatory scrutiny, but the firm’s innovative approach and use of advanced technology could position it well within the evolving landscape of decentralized finance and prediction markets.
