US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Polymarket Users Predict Low Odds of Approval

Polymarket users believe that President-elect Donald Trump’s administration is unlikely to approve a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve within the first 100 days, with odds at just 27%. This prediction comes from a poll with over $1.5 million in funds, marking a significant decrease from the 60% odds after Trump’s election.

Notably, Polymarket has been highly accurate in its predictions, including its estimate on the last presidential election. However, users of Kalshi, another prediction market, disagree, placing the odds of a BTC reserve happening by January 2026 at 61%, the highest point since December 21.

Divided Opinions on Bitcoin as a Strategic Reserve

Some conservative-leaning states like Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania have started exploring their strategic Bitcoin reserves. A proposed bill in Pennsylvania suggests that the government may invest at least 10% of the State General Fund in Bitcoin to combat inflation.

Despite this, Polymarket and Kalshi users expect the Texas strategic Bitcoin reserve bill to take time. A Polymarket poll places the odds of Texas passing the bill by March next year at 10%, while Kalshi has the odds at 24%.

Arguments For and Against a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

Proponents of the US embracing Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, including Senator Cynthia Lummis, argue that it makes financial sense due to demand and supply dynamics. Key points in favor of a strategic Bitcoin reserve include:

  • Rising demand, with spot ETFs having over $128 billion in assets.
  • Falling supply, with mining difficulty at a record high after the last Bitcoin halving event.
  • MicroStrategy’s success in becoming the biggest Bitcoin holder and an $80 billion company.

On the other hand, opponents argue that Bitcoin’s volatility, limited acceptance, market scale, regulatory constraints, and implications for sovereignty and trust make it an impractical solution for paying off the US national debt.

Furthermore, the Federal Reserve is not allowed to hold Bitcoin, requiring a congressional law to do so. Despite this, Trump has expressed support for Bitcoin and suggested converting the government’s Bitcoin holdings into strategic reserves, valued at $18 billion.

For more news and updates on the cryptocurrency market, visit Global Crypto News.

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