US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Experience Net Outflows Amid Declining Odds of Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

On February 18, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) shifted to net outflows as Bitcoin briefly dipped below $95,000. This decline was driven by decreasing odds of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve being established in the US under the Trump administration.

Outflows and Inflows in Bitcoin ETFs

The 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $60.63 million on February 18, a reversal from the $66.19 million in net inflows the previous trading day. The majority of outflows came from:

  • Bitwise’s BITB, which saw $112.65 million exit the fund.
  • Fidelity’s FBTC, which logged $16.42 million in outflows.

However, BlackRock’s IBIT managed to offset part of these outflows, attracting $68.44 million from investors. The remaining nine Bitcoin ETFs recorded no flows for the day.

Trading Activity and Ethereum ETFs

Despite the outflows, Bitcoin ETFs experienced a surge in trading activity, with daily volume rising to $2.83 billion on February 18. This is up from $2.2 billion the previous day.

Meanwhile, the nine spot Ethereum ETFs continued their positive streak, recording a modest $4.6 million in inflows on February 18. This was entirely from Fidelity’s FETH, which logged inflows for the third consecutive day. The remaining Ethereum ETFs remained neutral on the day.

Market Sentiment and Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

The mixed scenario reflects a broader shift in market sentiment, with Bitcoin dipping below $95,000 as part of an ongoing downtrend since its all-time high of $109,200 a month ago. A key factor behind this decline appears to be waning confidence in the potential establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in the US under the Trump administration.

The probability of President Donald Trump launching an SBR within his first 100 days has dropped to 11%, a significant drop from its January peak of 40%. Despite this decline, discussions within the Trump administration about a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve are reportedly ongoing.

As of press time, Bitcoin was down 0.4% over the past day, exchanging hands at $95,287, while Ethereum was also trading sideways at $2,688 per coin.

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