Could Trump’s Crypto Executive Order Break Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle?

The United States’ regulatory shift towards cryptocurrencies could potentially break Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at asset manager Bitwise. Hougan shared his outlook in a note published on January 29.

Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle

Bitcoin has historically followed a four-year cycle, with three years of general upward price movement in a bull market, followed by a pullback. This pattern played out in 2014 after the Mt. Gox collapse, in 2018 amid the Securities and Exchange’s ICO crackdown, and in 2022 following the Terra ecosystem’s collapse.

According to Hougan, if the classic four-year cycle were to play out, 2025 would be a great year for crypto, with Bitcoin’s price potentially doubling to above $200,000, driven by flows into ETFs and Bitcoin purchases by corporations and governments.

Trump’s Crypto Executive Order

U.S. President Donald Trump’s victory in November and his subsequent crypto executive order have added to the bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency market. The order signals the “full mainstreaming of crypto” amid several other positive developments, including a potential regulatory framework that could allow banks to fully enter the crypto custody market, boosting Wall Street’s confidence in digital assets.

A national digital assets stockpile is another big factor to consider. Taken together, the executive order hints at a scenario that could see trillions of dollars flow into crypto.

Key Factors to Consider

Some key factors to consider when evaluating the potential impact of Trump’s crypto executive order on the cryptocurrency market include:

  • Potential regulatory framework for crypto custody
  • National digital assets stockpile
  • Increased confidence in digital assets among Wall Street investors
  • Potential for trillions of dollars to flow into crypto

Will the Four-Year Cycle Be Broken?

According to Hougan, the anticipated positive effects of Trump’s executive order and other factors may take years to materialize. This means that the market cannot rule out another crypto winter in 2026.

“My guess is that we haven’t fully overcome the four-year cycle. Leverage will build up as the bull market builds. Excess will appear. Bad actors will emerge. And at some point, there could be a sharp pullback when the market gets over its skis.”

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