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Toncoin has experienced a significant price increase, rising by 45% from its monthly low. This surge follows recent developments surrounding Pavel Durov, who was granted permission to leave France after months of legal issues. As of Saturday, Toncoin reached a high of $3.6240, its highest value since February 24, bringing its market capitalization to over $8.4 billion.

Pavel Durov’s Legal Troubles and Impact on Toncoin

The recent price increase in Toncoin can be partially attributed to the broader rebound in cryptocurrency prices and the news of Pavel Durov’s release. Durov, a prominent figure in the tech world, had been detained in France since 2024 due to accusations involving the management of an online platform that allegedly facilitated illegal transactions. The charges included refusal to cooperate with authorities, drug trafficking, and money laundering.

Following his arrest, the crypto community voiced strong support for Durov. His release has created renewed optimism, contributing to the recent Toncoin price rally. However, analysts caution that the surge could be short-lived due to weak on-chain metrics and underlying challenges within the Toncoin ecosystem.

Concerns About Toncoin’s On-Chain Metrics

Despite the recent price rally, Toncoin faces challenges that could impact its long-term performance. According to data from TonStat, the inflation rate for Toncoin has risen to 0.40%, up from 0.33% in October. This increase in inflation is primarily due to a surge in the total supply, now standing at over 5.124 billion tokens.

Additionally, the number of daily transactions on the TON Blockchain has significantly declined. Daily transactions have dropped to 2.15 million, a sharp decrease from nearly 20 million recorded in September last year. The number of active wallets has also continued to decrease, signaling reduced user activity on the network.

Decline in DeFi Ecosystem and Token Performance

The total value locked (TVL) in Toncoin’s DeFi ecosystem has plummeted to $180 million, down from nearly $800 million just a few months ago. STON.fi, the largest decentralized exchange (DEX) on the TON Blockchain, has struggled to maintain market share, handling just $7.1 million in trading volume over the past 24 hours.

Moreover, several tokens within the TON ecosystem, such as Hamster Kombat, Catizen, and Tapswap, have seen significant value erosion. The poor performance of these tokens has wiped out billions of dollars in value, adding to the challenges faced by the network.

Short-Term Outlook for Toncoin

While Toncoin’s recent price increase has been noteworthy, historical trends suggest that such rallies often face corrections. For instance, similar price surges in other cryptocurrencies, such as Cardano, were followed by sharp sell-offs as traders reacted to major news events.

Technical analysis of Toncoin’s price chart shows resistance at the $3.50 level, which coincides with the 50-day moving average. This indicates that the token has encountered significant resistance. Additionally, Toncoin hit a key resistance level on the Murrey Math Lines, further suggesting that a downtrend may resume.

Analysts predict that Toncoin’s price could drop below $3 as the initial excitement surrounding Durov’s release subsides. Investors should remain cautious and consider the broader market conditions and on-chain metrics before making investment decisions.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Toncoin’s price surged by 45% following the news of Pavel Durov’s release, reaching a high of $3.6240.
  • On-chain metrics highlight challenges, including rising inflation, reduced daily transactions, and declining active wallets.
  • The Toncoin DeFi ecosystem has seen a significant drop in total value locked, impacting overall network performance.
  • Investors should be wary of potential price corrections as the market digests recent developments.

Stay informed on the latest developments in cryptocurrency, investing, and finance to make smarter decisions. The crypto market remains highly volatile, and understanding the fundamentals of each asset is essential for navigating this dynamic space.

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