Toncoin Enters Bear Market, Loses 57% of Value

Toncoin, the cryptocurrency native to the TON Blockchain, has experienced a significant decline in value, dropping 57% from its record high of $8.27 in June 2024 to $3.53. This drastic decrease has resulted in a $9 billion loss in market capitalization, from $18 billion to $8.8 billion.

Founder’s Arrest and Ecosystem Tokens’ Disappointing Performance

The decline of Toncoin began following the arrest and charges brought against its founder, Pavel Durov, in France. The charges include drug trafficking, sharing of images of child sex abuse, and allowing illicit transactions.

Furthermore, the poor performance of other tokens within the TON Blockchain ecosystem has exacerbated the decline. Hamster Kombat, for instance, has plummeted by over 80% from its all-time high, resulting in a valuation of just $103 million, far below market analysts’ projections of over $10 billion.

Decline in Active Wallets and On-Chain Metrics

According to TonStat data, the number of active monthly wallets on the TON Blockchain has significantly decreased, reaching four million, the lowest level since July last year. This decline is also reflected in the number of on-chain wallet activations, which has dropped to 30,778, down from 655,000 in August.

Other on-chain metrics, including daily transactions and annual inflation rates, have also been bearish for Toncoin.

TON Blockchain’s Loss of Market Share

The TON Blockchain has continued to lose market share in various areas, including its decentralized finance ecosystem, where the total value locked has dropped to $172 million, ranking it as the 37th-largest blockchain. Additionally, its decentralized exchange protocols have handled a significantly lower volume compared to other blockchains, such as Base.

Toncoin Price Analysis

According to the daily chart, Toncoin has formed a death cross pattern, with the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages crossing each other. The Relative Strength Index and the MACD indicators are both pointing downward, suggesting a continued decline in the price.

Toncoin is likely to continue falling, with sellers targeting the key support at $2.68, the 78.6% retracement level.

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