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Cryptocurrency Markets Predict High Likelihood of TikTok US Ban by May 2025
Cryptocurrency prediction markets are indicating strong odds that TikTok will face a ban in the US by May 2025. This development comes as leading platforms Polymarket and Kalshi show a high probability of the ByteDance-owned app being shut down.
According to the latest data, Polymarket’s prediction market shows a 79% likelihood of a TikTok ban, with a significant trading volume of $5.6 million. Similarly, Kalshi predicts an 89% probability, with $2.23 million in wagers. Both platforms have seen sharp increases in these probabilities since early January 2025.
Understanding Cryptocurrency Prediction Markets
Cryptocurrency prediction markets operate similarly to traditional stock exchanges, where users can purchase contracts based on real-world outcomes. In this case, traders will receive payouts if TikTok “is banned for download and/or use by the majority of Americans” before April 30.
The high trading volumes on both platforms suggest strong market conviction in the likelihood of a ban. This development is largely driven by recent legislation that takes effect, although President Biden has stated that he won’t enforce it during his final day in office.
What’s Next for TikTok?
The incoming Trump administration will have the authority to extend the ban by 90 days upon taking office. This uncertainty has attracted the attention of several individuals, including prominent YouTuber MrBeast, who expressed interest in acquiring TikTok to prevent its ban.
Okay fine, I’ll buy Tik Tok so it doesn’t get banned
Other notable figures, including “Shark Tank” host Kevin O’Leary and former Los Angeles Dodgers owner Frank McCourt, have also expressed interest in buying the platform’s US operations. However, the practicality of such a move remains unclear.
The prediction markets’ high confidence in a ban shows growing concerns about TikTok’s future in the US. Recent developments, including Trump’s discussion with Chairman Xi Jinping of China, have further fueled these concerns.
Trump stated, “My decision on TikTok will be made in the not too distant future, but I must have time to review the situation.” As the situation unfolds, cryptocurrency markets will likely continue to reflect the uncertainty surrounding TikTok’s future.
Tips for Investors and Crypto Enthusiasts:
- Stay up-to-date with the latest developments in the cryptocurrency space, including prediction markets and regulatory updates.
- Consider the potential implications of a TikTok ban on the broader cryptocurrency market and investing landscape.
- Keep an eye on prediction markets and trading volumes to gauge market sentiment and conviction.
Stay informed about the latest cryptocurrency news and updates on Global Crypto News.
