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SUI may be positioning for a potential rebound as momentum builds across both technical indicators and on-chain metrics.

SUI Market Performance

As of Monday afternoon in Asian time, SUI was trading at $3.20, marking a decline of approximately 25% from its peak last month. The token’s market capitalization stood at around $10.8 billion, reflecting current market sentiment amidst recent challenges.

Key Challenges Impacting SUI

One significant factor weighing on SUI’s performance was the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)’s decision to delay its ruling on the proposed Canary SUI ETF. This ETF would have provided investors with regulated exposure to SUI, but such delays, while common, often dampen market sentiment—especially in uncertain conditions.

Additionally, SUI faced added pressure following a major exploit on May 22. The Cetus Protocol, a core decentralized finance (DeFi) platform on the Sui network, was hacked, affecting assets valued at approximately $223 million. This incident raised concerns across the ecosystem and temporarily undermined confidence in the network.

Signs of Recovery for SUI

Despite recent setbacks, there are indications that SUI’s market conditions may be stabilizing. Data from DeFi analytics platforms shows that the total value locked (TVL) across Sui-based decentralized exchanges (DEXs) increased by 4.8% over the past week. Currently, SUI’s TVL stands at $3.05 billion, a significant rise from early April’s $2 billion figure.

A notable contributor to this growth is the increasing presence of Bitcoin-pegged assets on the Sui network. Approximately 10% of SUI’s TVL is held in tokens such as wBTC, LBTC, and stBTC. Additionally, over $1.1 billion in stablecoins is circulating within the Sui ecosystem, enhancing liquidity for both developers and traders.

Positive Market Sentiment

Further supporting optimism, SUI’s weighted funding rate has remained positive for nine consecutive days. This metric suggests that traders are maintaining a bullish outlook and continue to bet on upward price movement.

SUI Price Analysis: Technical Outlook

From a technical perspective, SUI is showing promising signs of recovery. The token appears to be breaking out of a multi-week falling wedge pattern on the daily chart, a formation often associated with potential reversals.

Adding to the bullish narrative, SUI recently formed a golden cross, where the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossed above the 200-day SMA. This widely recognized bullish signal often marks the beginning of a new uptrend. The last golden cross for SUI occurred in late 2024, when the token was trading at approximately $1.10. That crossover preceded a significant 380% rally, pushing SUI to its all-time high of $5.35.

Future Price Levels to Watch

If history repeats itself and bullish momentum continues to build, SUI could be poised to retest its all-time high and potentially surpass it. The next key resistance level to monitor is $4.31. A decisive break above this level could pave the way for a move toward the 161.8% Fibonacci extension at $5.92.

However, technical indicators require further confirmation. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is trending upward but has yet to cross above the 50 threshold. A move above this level would signal stronger buying momentum in the market.

Potential Downside Risks

While the golden cross is encouraging, it may not be sufficient to sustain a major rally without robust follow-through from buyers. Factors such as continued bearish sentiment stemming from the SEC’s ETF delay could also cap upside momentum in the near term.

If bullish momentum fails to materialize, SUI’s price could retrace, with $2.33 serving as a critical support level to watch on the downside.

Disclosure: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct thorough research before making financial decisions.

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