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JPMorgan anticipates a positive turnaround for the crypto market starting in August, though it has revised the year-to-date net flows from $12 billion to $8 billion. Analysts at the bank shared this updated forecast in a recent research note, suggesting that the market should see liquidations ease this month. This optimistic outlook comes as crypto markets continue to struggle, especially after a challenging June.
Bitcoin Price Movement
Bitcoin, which reached a peak of $73,000 in March, faced significant sell-off pressure last month, causing a steep decline. Factors contributing to this drop included the offloading of BTC by miners following a reduction in network rewards and a recent selling spree by the German government. Additionally, the market reacted sharply to news about imminent Mt. Gox repayments.
Currently, BTC is trading around $57,330, marking a decrease of over 13% in the past month. Recently, Bitcoin has been hovering near key support zones, with analysts suggesting that bears could aim for the $50,000 level.
JPMorgan’s Revised Net Flow Estimates
In their note to investors, JPMorgan analysts indicated that liquidations are expected to subside significantly by the end of July. Following this, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market might see an upward trend. However, the bank has revised its net flow estimates down to $8 billion, expressing doubts about the earlier projection of $12 billion.
Several factors contribute to this revision, including BTC’s current high price relative to its production cost and gold, a decrease in exchange reserves, and ongoing sell-off pressure. The decline in Bitcoin reserves can be largely attributed to liquidations, mainly by Gemini or Mt. Gox creditors. Additionally, the extensive sale by the German government, which held 50,000 BTC seized from a piracy site, has significantly impacted the market.
On-Chain Data Insights
On-chain data indicates that the German government’s wallet currently holds approximately 4,925 BTC, valued at around $283 million. When German police initially seized the BTC from Movie2k, its value was about $2 billion, which later increased to $3.6 billion.
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