Brett (brett) 
Hedera Hashgraph Token Faces Potential 27% Decline Amid Falling Stablecoin Supply
The Hedera Hashgraph token (HBAR) is facing significant bearish pressure as its ecosystem experiences a sharp decline in stablecoin supply. The token has already dropped over 57% from its peak earlier this year, reflecting broader weakness across the cryptocurrency market.
Stablecoin Supply Drops Sharply
Recent third-party data reveals that the stablecoin supply on the Hedera network dropped to $50 million on Tuesday, down from a monthly high of $214 million. This sharp decrease is raising concerns among investors and users. A falling stablecoin supply is often seen as a warning sign for layer-1 or layer-2 networks, as it typically indicates reduced user activity and lower transaction fee revenue.
For instance, blockchains like Tron (TRX) have maintained profitability largely because they process high volumes of Tether (USDT) transactions. In contrast, Hedera’s reduced stablecoin activity has led to a noticeable decline in network fees. From a peak of nearly $4,000 in May, Hedera’s chain fees have dropped to just $1,600 as of Tuesday.
Declining Total Value Locked (TVL)
The total value locked (TVL) in the Hedera Hashgraph network has also seen a sharp contraction. TVL has fallen from over $352 million on June 10 to approximately $175 million at present. This decline underscores the diminishing activity within the network’s ecosystem.
Some of the largest decentralized applications (dApps) on Hedera include Stader, SaucerSwap, Bonzo Finance, and HbarSuit. However, when compared to newer blockchains, Hedera’s TVL remains relatively small. For example, Berachain holds over $2.67 billion in TVL, while Sonic and Unichain have $1.6 billion and $850 million, respectively.
DEX Activity Comparison
In the decentralized exchange (DEX) sector, Hedera-based protocols have processed just $203 million in trading volume over the past 30 days. This figure is significantly lower than competitors such as Unichain and Sonic, which recorded $11.2 billion and $3.8 billion in volume, respectively. The low activity on Hedera’s DEX platforms further highlights the challenges facing the network.
HBAR Price Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, HBAR’s price chart shows a bearish trend. The token reached a peak near $0.40 in December and January, forming a double-top pattern. Since then, it has followed a downward trajectory, characterized by lower highs and lower lows. Currently, HBAR is trading just below the upper boundary of its descending channel.
Key indicators also point to further downside potential. The coin has moved below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and momentum indicators such as the MACD and Relative Strength Index (RSI) are trending downward. These signals suggest that bearish sentiment remains strong.
Potential Price Targets
Given the weakening fundamentals and negative technical indicators, HBAR could drop to the lower boundary of its descending channel at $0.1236. This represents a potential 27% decline from its current price levels. However, a breakout above the resistance level of $0.2290 would invalidate this bearish outlook and could signal a reversal in trend.
The challenges facing Hedera Hashgraph, including declining stablecoin supply, reduced TVL, and low network activity, are contributing to its bearish outlook. Investors should closely monitor the network’s fundamentals and technical signals before making trading decisions in this volatile market.
