Mantle (mnt) 
Ethereum Price Surge: Is Resistance at $2,800 a Turning Point?
Ethereum has experienced a substantial price increase, climbing over 40% in the past month and regaining the $2,500 level after previously dipping toward $1,800. While this bullish momentum signals optimism, data suggests the rally may face challenges as Ethereum approaches the critical resistance level of $2,800.
Investor Activity at $2,800: A Potential Sell Zone
On-chain analysis highlights a concentration of investor cost basis levels near $2,800. Many Ethereum holders who purchased at this price and endured months underwater may now consider selling to break even. This selling pressure could rise significantly as ETH nears this resistance zone, potentially stalling its upward trajectory.
Futures Market Sentiment Shifting
Market sentiment in Ethereum’s futures trading also displays caution. The Taker Buy-Sell Ratio, a key metric tracking whether aggressive traders favor buying or selling, has recently declined. The 14-day moving average of this ratio indicates sellers are gaining dominance in the derivatives market, which could lead to further price corrections if the trend persists.
Technical Analysis: Momentum Slowing Down?
From a technical perspective, Ethereum remains in an uptrend. The cryptocurrency is trading above crucial short- and mid-term moving averages, including the 50-day and 100-day averages, signaling a healthy long-term outlook. However, certain indicators suggest the rally may be losing steam.
The Bollinger Bands, which measure price volatility, are tightening after a period of expansion earlier this month. This indicates reduced volatility and a more indecisive market. Additionally, Ethereum’s relative strength index (RSI) is holding steady at 63.9, still within bullish territory but no longer overbought. Meanwhile, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) has flattened out, recently displaying a bearish crossover that could signal fading momentum.
Key Scenarios Ahead
Ethereum faces two potential paths as it approaches the $2,800 resistance:
- Breakthrough Scenario: If ETH successfully breaks above $2,800, it could pave the way for a swift move toward $3,000 and beyond. Factors such as institutional demand, particularly through Ethereum staking ETFs, could provide strong support for this scenario.
- Correction Scenario: If selling pressure intensifies around $2,800 from futures traders and break-even sellers, Ethereum may experience a healthy correction. In this case, prices could retrace to the $2,200 support level before resuming an upward trend.
While Ethereum’s uptrend remains intact, investors should exercise caution as the market navigates critical resistance levels. Monitoring on-chain activity, technical indicators, and sentiment in the derivatives market will be essential for understanding Ethereum’s next moves.
