There is a noticeable buzz in the crypto community as the US presidential election draws near. Both Democratic and Republican candidates have expressed their intentions to pursue pro-crypto policies, sparking a surge in US political betting.

Is Harris the Successor to Biden’s Harsh Crypto Policies?

Vice President Kamala Harris vowed that if elected, she would focus on cutting bureaucracy and regulatory red tape regarding cryptocurrencies. This rhetoric contrasts with her opponent, Donald Trump’s long-time support for the crypto industry. Many view Harris as the heir to the policies of the Biden administration, known for its strict attitude toward regulating crypto.

The strongest turmoil around crypto regulation emerged in March 2022, when the White House released Joe Biden’s executive order on ensuring the responsible development of digital assets. Although the order didn’t specify how regulation should proceed, it raised concerns about consumer protection, criminal activity, and global economic leadership.

Harris’ initial support for Biden’s growing regulatory scrutiny of cryptocurrencies isn’t the crypto community’s biggest concern. Harris is likely to appoint Gary Gensler, the current chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, as Treasury Secretary. Gensler, once seen as progressive on digital assets, is now regarded as a staunch crypto critic.

Gensler’s views on crypto have shifted dramatically. In 2018, before taking the helm of the SEC, many in the crypto industry hailed him as forward-thinking. However, after Joe Biden appointed him to lead the SEC in 2021, Gensler’s public stance shifted toward regulation. He described the crypto market as a “Wild West” rife with scams.

“I believe we have a crypto market now where many tokens may be unregistered securities.”

Gary Gensler’s most high-profile crypto-related case was the indictment of Sam Bankman-Fried, who received a 25-year sentence in 2022 for embezzling billions from FTX users. This case cemented Gensler’s transition from skeptic to outright opponent.

In 2023, the SEC filed 13 charges against Binance and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao. That same year, the SEC took another legal action against Coinbase, resulting in tokens like Solana, Polygon, and Cardano being labeled “unregistered securities” and suffering significant losses.

Overall, Gensler’s latest actions directly contradicted his earlier public positions. In January 2024, he warned potential investors that cryptocurrencies “continued to be subject to significant risk” and suggested that many crypto asset services might not comply with federal securities laws.

Adding to the skepticism, Harris has strong support from major Democratic elites, such as the Obamas and the Clintons, whose views on crypto are also far from favorable. Barack Obama remained silent on encryption and digital assets during his presidency. Meanwhile, in 2021, Hillary Clinton stated that cryptocurrencies could undermine entire nations and threaten the US dollar’s status as the global reserve currency.

Other figures aligned with Harris share similar views. Xavier Becerra warned against digital asset scams in 2020, and Jennifer Granholm initiated an investigation into the energy usage of a Texas crypto miner, leading to a lawsuit alleging government overreach.

Will Donald Trump Become a True Promoter of a Crypto-Friendly America?

Harris’ opponent, Donald Trump, presents brighter prospects for the crypto world. Trump initially criticized cryptocurrency, calling it “highly volatile and based on thin air.” However, his stance shifted after the SEC began enforcing harsh policies on the major cryptocurrency exchanges. Trump and the Republican Party started criticizing the Democrats and their regulatory attempts under President Joe Biden, dubbing the situation a “war on crypto.”

Beyond politics, Trump personally witnessed the economic benefits of cryptocurrencies. In early 2022, Trump sold his own branded non-fungible tokens worth millions of dollars and began accepting crypto donations for his campaign, raising $3 million in July 2024. Investors have been purchasing fan-created crypto meme coins, such as the MAGA token, as a show of support for his campaign.

“Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’ anti-crypto crusade will be over.”

Trump has gained strong support from the crypto community and tech leaders. He has endorsements from industry heavyweights like the Winklevoss twins and Elon Musk. Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, who Trump nominated as his Vice President, has attracted a lot of buzz among the crypto community as well.

Vance revealed in his most recent federal financial disclosure that he owns between $100,000 and $250,000 worth of Bitcoin. Prominent businessmen such as Panatir co-founder Joe Lonsdale and Doug Leone of VC Sequoia Capital have already raised more than $8 million to support the Trump-Vance ticket.

Robert Kennedy Jr., who recently dropped out of the current election race, urged his supporters to vote for Trump. Kennedy Jr. also declared his dedication to Bitcoin during the Bitcoin 2024 conference, revealing that the majority of his wealth is in digital assets.

Trump announced the launch of his own crypto platform, World Liberty Financial, to be operated by his sons, Eric and Donald Trump Jr. The platform is expected to function similarly to others like Coinbase, Gemini, and Binance, charging users fees for trading cryptocurrencies. It may also introduce WLFI, the platform’s own token.

Analysts at Bernstein predict that if Trump wins, the price of Bitcoin could reach $90,000 by the end of 2024. In contrast, the same analysis projects that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could drop to as low as $30,000 if Harris prevails.

What to Expect if Kamala Harris Wins?

Kamala Harris’ public statements on cryptocurrency regulation lack detail. While she might use pro-crypto rhetoric to distinguish herself from Biden, her strong connections to anti-crypto politicians and elites could pose a significant obstacle to implementing her claimed intentions. As a result, her promises have no solid foundation, as evidenced by their vague wording.

Overall, the US government’s current stance on crypto is gradually becoming more lenient. Under a Harris presidency, any changes would likely proceed slowly and reluctantly, though they will occur nonetheless, as cryptocurrencies are here to stay.

What to Expect if Donald Trump Wins?

Donald Trump brings up the subject of crypto to set himself apart from the current administration. His support for the crypto community extends beyond political maneuvers. After personally witnessing the potential profitability of cryptocurrencies, Trump’s skepticism has dissipated.

Given his impulsive nature, it stands to reason that if elected president, Trump might take a more visible step toward crypto regulation. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Jeffries support Bernstein’s forecast that Bitcoin could increase in value to between $90,000 and $100,000 if Trump is elected.

Some experts are optimistic about Bitcoin’s growth regardless of the election outcome. FBS analytics predict that the price of Bitcoin will rise to $100,000 by 2025 if current trends in crypto adoption continue. They showed how BTCUSD has formed a cup-and-handle pattern, a classic bullish pattern. If the price breaks the upper trend line above the $67,000 resistance level, the $90,000 mark, corresponding to the 138.2 Fibonacci line, will be the nearest target. If resistance at $90,000 is broken, Bitcoin could reach $102,000.

Such predictions give the entire crypto community reasonable hope that mass crypto adoption is just a matter of time.

Mike Ermoalev

Mike Ermoalev is the founder and CEO of Outset PR, a pioneering agency known for its disruptive PR initiatives that drive meaningful impact in the blockchain, Web3, and AI sectors. Regularly featured in top publications, Mike shares his sharp eye for crypto market opportunities and potential risks, blending in-depth research with refreshingly straightforward explanations. Mike also masterminded the Crypto Opinion interview series, scoring incredible sit-downs with influential figures like Ripple and Tether executives, rocker Matt Sorum, and even Prince Philip of Serbia – sharing exclusive insights with readers.

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