Will Crypto Markets See a Santa Rally in 2024?
As the Christmas season approaches, crypto traders are eagerly watching the market for signs of a potential “Santa Claus” rally. However, Bitcoin’s recent 12% decline from its all-time high has dampened hopes of a Santa rally this year.
Understanding the Santa Claus Rally
A “Santa Claus” rally refers to price gains in crypto in the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the following year. Historically, crypto markets have rallied around the Christmas holidays, with eight out of ten times between 2014 and 2023 experiencing a post-Christmas rally.
Bitcoin’s Q4 2024 Price Performance
Bitcoin’s quarterly returns data shows over 50% gains in Q4 both in 2024 and 2023. However, the bull runs in 2020, 2017, and 2013 ended with nearly 480%, 215%, and 168% gains in BTC in Q4. This quarter’s performance has been lackluster, with little evidence to support extended gains in the first two trading days of 2025.
Top 50 Altcoin Performance
The altcoin season index on Blockchaincenter.net evaluates the performance of the top 50 altcoins over a period of 90 days. The index reads 49 on a scale of 0 to 100, meaning the price performance of the top 50 altcoins is lagging behind when compared to Bitcoin’s yield for holders in the same time period.
Trump Effect, South Korea, and Asian Influence This Cycle
Bitcoin prices continue to decline, despite U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s appointment of pro-crypto candidates. Data from Statista shows that South Korea is estimated to be the third largest cryptocurrency market in the world, and exchanges in Korea account for over 9% of the global trade volume as of 2021.
Key Levels to Watch Over the Holidays
Bitcoin derivatives traders are bullish on BTC gains across exchanges, with a long/short ratio exceeding 1 across the exchange platforms. Over $38 million in Bitcoin short positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, signaling higher relevance and demand among traders.
Key levels to watch during the holidays include:
- Support at $89,376 and $92,500: A daily candlestick close below the $89,376 level could trigger a breakdown of key supports and signal that sellers are ready to pull BTC to the lower boundary of the imbalance zone on the weekly price chart at $81,500.
- Resistance at the $100,000 milestone: A daily candlestick close above this level brings the new all-time high above $108,000 back in play as the target.
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