Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas expressed caution regarding the probability of spot Ethereum ETF approval, estimating the chances at a pessimistic 25%. Balchunas highlighted the lack of positive signs or intelligence from the SEC, indicating a deliberate lack of engagement rather than procrastination.

On the other hand, Craig Salm, Grayscale’s Chief Legal Officer, offered a different perspective on the SEC’s silence. Salm suggested that the SEC’s lack of communication does not necessarily imply disapproval, citing the constructive engagement received during the approval process for a spot Bitcoin ETF. He emphasized that the key issues addressed for Bitcoin ETFs, such as creation/redemption procedures and custody concerns, are equally relevant to Ether.

There is growing concern about the SEC’s stance on Ether classification, with reports of subpoenas issued to crypto firms regarding their interactions with the Ethereum Foundation. This has led Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital, to believe that the approval of spot Ether ETFs in the near future is “extremely unlikely.”

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