KuCoin (kcs) 
Bloomberg Analysts Predict High Approval Odds for Crypto ETFs Despite SEC Delays
Bloomberg analysts have projected a 75% to 90% chance of approval for key exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications currently under review by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). However, prolonged delays in the decision-making process have pushed potential final rulings further into 2025.
Spot ETFs for Litecoin, Solana, and Crypto Basket Indexes Lead Approval Odds
According to Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart from Bloomberg, spot ETFs for Litecoin (LTC), Solana (SOL), and various cryptocurrency basket indexes, such as Grayscale’s GBTC conversion, have the highest likelihood of approval. Each has been assigned a 90% chance of success. Factors contributing to these optimistic projections include the SEC’s favorable classification of LTC and SOL as commodities and their integration into regulated futures markets.
All three ETFs have had their 19b-4 forms acknowledged, with deadlines for final SEC decisions spanning from July to October 2025. This procedural acknowledgment is a critical step in moving ETF applications closer to approval.
XRP and Other Cryptocurrencies Show Promising Approval Odds
Ripple (XRP) holds an 85% chance of approval, as per the analysts. This projection is tied to regulatory classifications, particularly after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced in April that XRP is considered a regulated asset for futures markets. Such designations increase the likelihood of approval.
Other cryptocurrencies, including Dogecoin (DOGE) and Hedera (HBAR), have been given an 80% approval probability. Meanwhile, Avalanche (AVAX), Cardano (ADA), and Polkadot (DOT) trail slightly behind with a 75% chance of approval. These projections reflect the overall growing acceptance of cryptocurrency ETFs by regulatory bodies, albeit at varying levels based on asset-specific considerations.
“All have a good chance of happening,” wrote Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas.
Ongoing SEC Delays Push Deadlines Further
Despite high approval odds for many ETF applications, the SEC continues to issue delays across the crypto ETF landscape. On April 29, the SEC postponed decisions on several applications, including Franklin Templeton’s spot Solana ETF, now facing a final deadline of October 7, and its spot XRP ETF, with a deadline of November 5. Other delayed applications include Grayscale’s spot Hedera ETF and Bitwise’s Dogecoin ETF, both set for final rulings by October 8.
Additionally, the SEC deferred a decision on the staking provisions tied to Fidelity’s spot Ethereum ETF. While the final deadline for this proposal has yet to be announced, delays signal the SEC’s cautious approach toward approving staking-related ETFs.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETFs Also Face Delays
Earlier in April, the SEC postponed rulings on Bitwise’s spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs, along with Canary Capital’s Hedera ETF. The new deadlines for these filings are now scheduled for June 10 and June 11, respectively. These delays underline the regulatory hurdles that applicants must navigate to secure ETF approvals in the cryptocurrency sector.
The extended timeline for decision-making reflects the SEC’s thorough evaluation process as it balances investor protection with the growing demand for cryptocurrency ETFs. While delays remain a recurring issue, the optimistic approval odds indicate a potential shift toward broader acceptance of crypto-based financial products.
