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Prediction Markets: A Key Application of Blockchain Technology

Prediction markets have emerged as one of the most compelling applications of blockchain technology today, with over $3.1 billion in betting volume in Q3 this year. Polymarket—the leading prediction market platform—has captured mainstream attention, accounting for 99% of prediction market share. For instance, during the 2024 US elections, Polymarket made significant inroads into American households through mainstream media, showcasing how blockchain can fundamentally change our interaction with knowledge.

The Evolution of Information Generation and Verification

Prediction markets are part of a broader shift in how we generate and verify information. This transformation builds on the success of crowdsourced platforms like Wikipedia and Reddit, taking collective wisdom to the next level.

The Rise and Fall of Crowdsourcing Platforms

Wikipedia and Reddit were groundbreaking in the early 2000s, revolutionizing the way collective wisdom can be harnessed. Wikipedia’s open-editing model created a global hub for knowledge, while Reddit fostered public discourse where community votes determined content value. Although these platforms democratized access to information, they have notable flaws.

Wikipedia has struggled to maintain neutrality, with content wars and biased edits being common. Reddit, despite its promise of democratized opinions, often promotes clickbait over accuracy. Both platforms remain vulnerable to manipulation through misinformation, organized brigades, or groupthink.

Blockchain: The Next Leap in Crowdsourcing

Blockchain technology addresses the issues that have long plagued crowdsourcing platforms—trust, accuracy, and sustainability. These platforms were built on collective wisdom, but without proper protocols, misinformation and bias can still slip through. Blockchain offers transparency, accountability, and incentives for truth over popularity.

Every edit, vote, or contribution is recorded immutably, making system manipulation impossible. Blockchain-enabled proof-of-unique human protocols can fundamentally change the dynamics of accountability and trust, ensuring the integrity of information.

Prediction markets, as seen with Polymarket, provide a solution for what Reddit’s voting system cannot: reward truth, not popularity. In prediction markets, participants bet on what is true, creating a self-regulating system that prioritizes verifiable truth.

Decentralized Funding Models

Blockchain also offers solutions to the broken financial models of journalism. Traditional crowdsourced platforms struggle to create sustainable financial models. Blockchain introduces decentralized funding models, like quadratic funding, where the community decides which content should receive funding. This allows high-quality journalism to thrive, free from paywalls or ad-driven content.

Decentralizing Opinion

Blockchain is decentralizing opinion as well. Prediction markets allow the crowd to determine the weight of journalism or research. People stake their reputation and money on what they believe is accurate, creating a decentralized system that makes it harder for bad actors to manipulate public opinion.

Bringing Accountability

Blockchain brings accountability, a feature lacking in traditional crowdsourcing platforms. On these platforms, users can contribute anonymously, creating room for trolls and bad actors. Blockchain ensures that every decision is fully auditable, holding users accountable for their actions.

The Future of Crowdsourcing and Blockchain

Crowdsourced platforms, as we know them, are outdated. Wikipedia and Reddit were revolutionary for their time, but they cannot solve today’s problems of trust, bias, and financial sustainability. Blockchain is not just the next step—it is the necessary evolution.

In the future, crowdsourced platforms will be marketplaces where quality, truth, and value are decided by users, not centralized gatekeepers. Blockchain, prediction markets, and decentralized funding models like quadratic funding are building that future. These tools are the foundation of a decentralized, transparent internet where unbiased, high-quality journalism and research thrive.

The question is no longer if blockchain will bring the next evolution – it’s when.

Ciarán Murray, a seasoned veteran of the blockchain industry, is the founder of Olas, a publishing protocol building a decentralized media platform. Aside from advising on numerous blockchain projects, Ciarán previously worked in the media industry for British Sky Broadcasting. He understands the issues facing the media industry and how to apply blockchain technology to remedy them.

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