Bitcoin’s relationship with macroeconomic factors remains a significant topic as global monetary policies and the asset’s price have experienced a downturn over the past month. Token Bay Capital founder and managing partner Lucy Gazmararian commented in a recent interview that Bitcoin (BTC) can move in sync with the stock market.

This trend has become more apparent as digital assets integrate with traditional finance. Analysts have noted a correlation between BTC and macroeconomics, influenced by geopolitical uncertainty and global monetary policies, such as rate adjustments by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

However, the reverse can also be true in some cases, as investors have historically viewed Bitcoin as a “risk-on” asset and a hedge against inflation. Gazmararian observed that these correlations can sometimes break down, as BTC fundamentally differs from other asset classes like bonds and equity.

Bitcoin Market Trends and Predictions

Despite BTC’s 9% drop over the past 30 days and ongoing U.S. inflation concerns, Gazmararian believes the Bitcoin bull run is only halfway through. She referenced past “four-year boom-bust” cycles observed in crypto markets, noting that the current market retracement is consistent with previous cycles, particularly post-halving.

“10%, 15%, to 30% drops are really keeping with past cycles,” Gazmararian stated.

Data from BiTBO and TradingView indicated slumps of up to 40% following Bitcoin’s quadrennial code changes, followed by parabolic runs to new highs. Historically, BTC has never returned to its pre-halving prices after these transitions. Gazmararian predicted that if this pattern holds, markets could see a Bitcoin peak in late 2025.

Potential Risks and Investor Sentiment

Conversely, Gazmararian suggested that BTC’s ongoing bull run might be questioned if its value drops by more than 50% in the upcoming months. A 50% price decrease would bring Bitcoin below $32,000 at current levels.

According to IntoTheBlock, over 84% of long-term BTC holders are currently in profit, whereas 71% of short-term buyers are experiencing losses. These investors purchased Bitcoin at prices between $52,490.68 and $71,050, meaning significant declines could result in substantial losses for many.

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