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Bitcoin has maintained its position above $80,000 as both cryptocurrency and stock market investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of Donald Trump’s much-anticipated Liberation Day speech on tariffs.

Bitcoin Holds Steady Amid Market Uncertainty

As of today, Bitcoin is trading at $84,500, reflecting a 10% increase from its March low. Meanwhile, U.S. stock market futures are trending lower, with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 indices both showing declines of over 300 points. This cautious sentiment underscores the market’s apprehension ahead of key economic announcements.

Trump’s Liberation Day Speech: A Market Catalyst

The upcoming Liberation Day speech by Donald Trump at the Rose Garden is expected to significantly influence markets, including Bitcoin, altcoins, and stocks. In the address, Trump is set to announce reciprocal tariffs targeting several major economies, including the European Union, China, India, and Japan.

Market analysts caution that these tariffs could increase the likelihood of a recession in the near term. Both Goldman Sachs and PIMCO have raised their recession probabilities to 35%, citing potential reductions in business investment and consumer spending as key factors.

How Bitcoin Could React to Tariff Announcements

While theoretically, Bitcoin’s price might decline following the tariff announcement, historical trends suggest otherwise. There are three key reasons why Bitcoin and the broader stock market might rebound:

  • Market Pricing: The Liberation Day tariffs have been a topic of discussion for weeks, meaning the market may have already priced in these developments. As a result, the announcement could trigger a “buy the fact” scenario, where investors react positively once the uncertainty is resolved.
  • Bitcoin’s Resilience: Bitcoin has demonstrated its ability to endure significant challenges, including the COVID-19 pandemic and regulatory pressures under SEC Chair Gary Gensler. Investment manager Gadi Chait commented, “

    These price swings may rattle speculators, but ultimately, this is just noise. Bitcoin has always been and always will be a long-term play; its value lies in its inherent sovereignty, decentralization, and finite nature, not short-term volatility. We’ve been here before, and we’ll likely be here again, but Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory remains undeniable.

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  • Potential Federal Reserve Actions: A recession could prompt the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates and reintroduce quantitative easing, which would be bullish for Bitcoin and other risk assets.

Bitcoin’s Strong Technical Indicators

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin continues to show strength. The weekly chart reveals that BTC is trading within an ascending channel, with its current price hovering near the lower boundary of this range. Historically, Bitcoin has rebounded strongly from similar levels, as seen in August of last year, when it surged to a new all-time high shortly after touching this range.

Another bullish indicator is Bitcoin’s position above its 50-week moving average, a key support level that has historically signaled upward momentum. If Bitcoin manages to maintain its current trajectory, it could potentially reach $100,000 in the coming weeks. However, a break below the lower boundary of the ascending channel would invalidate this bullish outlook.

As the market awaits Trump’s Liberation Day speech, all eyes remain on Bitcoin’s performance and its ability to navigate the current economic landscape.

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