Bitcoin Price Falls into Bear Market, but Long-Term Trends Remain Bullish

The Bitcoin price has entered a bear market this year, falling by 23% from its peak earlier in January. Despite this decline, historical data suggests that Bitcoin remains in a broader bullish trend, as it has experienced significantly larger drops in the past and recovered strongly.

Bitcoin’s Current Performance

On Good Friday, Bitcoin was trading at $84,555, which marks a 13% rebound from its lowest point this year. Its current market valuation stands at over $1.68 trillion. So far, Bitcoin has dropped 10% in 2025, yet it has still outperformed traditional indices like the Nasdaq 100, which has declined by 13% during the same period.

Historical Context: Bitcoin’s Resilience

Bitcoin has a history of sharp corrections followed by rallies. For instance, the cryptocurrency fell by 35% from its peak in March 2024 to its lowest point in August of the same year, only to recover in subsequent months. Similarly, Bitcoin dropped from $68,980 in November 2021 to its lowest level in 2022 during a period marked by Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and the collapse of major crypto platforms, including Celsius, Terra, and FTX.

Given Bitcoin’s history of resilience, the current pullback may not indicate a long-term bearish trend. Its fundamental metrics remain strong, offering potential for future recoveries.

Key Fundamentals Supporting Bitcoin

Several crucial factors suggest that Bitcoin’s fundamentals are robust, even amid the recent dip:

  • Bitcoin Mining Difficulty: Mining difficulty has reached an all-time high, which reduces the issuance of new coins. This scarcity effect often supports long-term price growth.
  • Exchange Balances Decline: Data shows that Bitcoin balances on exchanges have dropped significantly. Currently, only 2.18 million coins are held on exchanges, compared to 2.44 million in September 2024. This decline signals that many holders are opting to retain their assets rather than sell.
  • Correlation with Gold: Gold prices have surged by over 25% this year, reaching an all-time high. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a pattern of following gold’s price movements with a lag of 100 to 150 days. This suggests the possibility of a Bitcoin rally in the near future.

Technical Indicators Point to Strength

A look at Bitcoin’s weekly chart reveals that the cryptocurrency is holding its uptrend despite recent volatility. It has consistently found support at the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a key level it has not breached since October 2023.

Additionally, Bitcoin remains above the Ichimoku Cloud indicator, which is widely regarded as a bullish signal. The price has also surpassed the critical resistance level of $73,685, forming the upper boundary of a cup-and-handle pattern. This pattern is a continuation signal that often predicts further gains.

The depth of the cup is approximately 78%. Projecting this distance upward suggests that Bitcoin could potentially reach $123,585, representing a 45% increase from its current price. However, a drop below the $73,685 support level would invalidate this bullish outlook.

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

While Bitcoin is currently navigating a bear market, its historical resilience, strong fundamentals, and technical indicators suggest that it remains well-positioned for future growth. Investors should monitor key support and resistance levels, as well as macroeconomic trends such as gold prices, to better understand potential price movements.

For more updates and analysis on Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, stay informed with the latest financial news and insights.

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