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Is $170,000 Still a Valid Bitcoin Projection Amid Derivatives Open Interest at $140,000?

With Bitcoin’s derivatives market showing concentrated open interest around $140,000, many investors are questioning whether the $170,000 target remains realistic or if the market is bracing for another correction. Here’s a breakdown of key factors influencing Bitcoin’s price trajectory, including inflation data, geopolitical tensions, and predictive models.

Softer CPI Data Fuels Bitcoin Recovery

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to $110,400 on June 11 after fresh U.S. inflation data revealed a slower pace of price increases. This development sparked optimism that the Federal Reserve might have more flexibility to lower interest rates in the coming months, a potential boost for risk assets like Bitcoin.

As of June 12, Bitcoin is trading near $107,000, approximately 4.5% below its all-time high of $111,970 reached on May 22. Investor sentiment has shifted positively, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index sitting at 71, indicating “greed” in the market.

Social media data also shows a bullish sentiment. Recent analysis reveals 2.12 positive Bitcoin mentions for every negative one, marking the highest ratio since November 2024, when Bitcoin surpassed $70,000 shortly after a major political event in the U.S.

Institutional interest continues to grow as well. Total assets in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) surged from $91 billion in April to $132 billion in June, reflecting a 45% increase over two months. This rise underscores sustained demand from large investors, further supporting Bitcoin’s upward momentum.

Middle East Risks Redirect Capital Toward Gold

Despite the positive macroeconomic backdrop, geopolitical factors are creating short-term uncertainty. U.S. inflation remains contained, with core consumer prices holding steady at 2.8%, leading to expectations of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. However, escalating tensions in the Middle East are influencing capital flows.

Security concerns have prompted the U.S. to relocate personnel from certain regions, while international focus has intensified on Iran’s reported nuclear activities. Consequently, some investors have shifted toward traditional safe-haven assets, driving gold prices up by 1.5% to $3,375 per ounce within 24 hours.

Bitcoin has also felt the impact, falling 1.7% over the same period. This reflects a broader risk-off sentiment as investors temporarily favor safer assets amid uncertainty.

Meanwhile, the crypto derivatives market remains active. On Deribit, open interest in Bitcoin options reached $36.7 billion, with the June 27 expiry accounting for $13.8 billion in volume. A significant number of call options are concentrated at the $140,000 strike price, while the overall put-to-call ratio has softened to 0.60, signaling a slightly less bullish sentiment compared to previous sessions.

Predictive Models Suggest $160K–$170K Range Still in Play

Bitcoin’s short-term price action appears to hinge on a mix of macroeconomic triggers, technical indicators, and behavioral signals from large market participants. Analysts are closely watching the $106,000 to $107,000 range, identified as a key demand zone by several experts.

According to one trader, Bitcoin has “rejected local supply” and is attempting to stabilize within this range. A failure to hold above $106,000 could lead to a test of lower levels, potentially filling a gap in the CME futures market. However, if Bitcoin maintains its structure, targets in the $114,000–$116,000 range remain plausible for the short term.

On-chain data provides additional insights. Historically, large holders, or “whales,” increase exchange inflows as prices approach new highs, signaling profit-taking behavior. However, current inflows are trending lower, suggesting that many large holders are opting to hold rather than sell, potentially positioning for higher levels in the future.

Sentiment models also point to potential upside. The Golden Diminishing Curves model places the next cycle top between $160,000 and $170,000. This model, based on historical cycle behaviors, indicates that the current cycle still has room to develop before reaching its peak.

Another well-known analyst, using RSI-based cycle studies, notes that if Bitcoin’s monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) retests 75, it could align with price levels around $130,000. This would mark a significant milestone in the ongoing bull run.

Key Levels to Watch

While the overall market structure remains bullish, risks persist. A break below $100,000 would weaken the current bullish setup, and a failure to hold the $106,000 level could trigger further retracements. Short-term targets in the $114,000–$116,000 range appear achievable, but caution is advised.

For investors, this is a phase of managing expectations rather than chasing euphoric price targets. Always consult with a financial advisor, conduct thorough research, and never invest more than you can afford to lose.

Disclosure: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

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