Market analysts anticipate that miners could potentially sell off approximately $5 billion worth of Bitcoin in the months following the upcoming halving. This trend has been observed in previous cycles, according to Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research.
Thielen predicts that the selling pressure from miners could last for four to six months, resulting in Bitcoin trading sideways for an extended period, similar to past halving events. The 2020 halving saw Bitcoin prices fluctuating between $9,000 and $11,500 for five months post-halving.
With the halving scheduled for around April 20, just days away, experts suggest that the market may not witness a significant upward trend until October. Thielen highlights the preference of miners to stockpile Bitcoin pre-halving, leading to a supply-demand imbalance and subsequent price rally.
Post-halving, Marathon, the largest Bitcoin miner globally, is expected to gradually sell off its inventory to prevent a sharp decline in revenue. Marathon currently mines approximately 28-30 BTC per day, which could add up to 133 days of additional supply to the market post-halving.
If all miners follow a similar strategy, Thielen estimates that up to $104 million worth of Bitcoin could be sold daily post-halving. This could potentially reverse the supply-demand imbalance that drove the recent price rally.
The halving will reduce the daily Bitcoin rewards for miners from 900 to 450, potentially resulting in revenue losses of around $10 billion annually for the industry. Marathon Digital Holdings and other miners have been investing in new equipment and acquiring smaller competitors to offset revenue declines.
Marathon CEO Peter Thiel mentioned that the break-even rate for profitability post-halving would be approximately $46,000 per BTC. He expects minimal price fluctuations in the six months following the event, anticipating a bullish cycle for Bitcoin in the long run.
Alvin Kan, COO at Bitget Wallet, believes that ETFs will continue to play a significant role in market dynamics post-halving. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC in January has led to a total cumulative net inflow of $56.27 billion, contributing to Bitcoin’s rapid growth in the current bull market.
In conclusion, the upcoming halving event is expected to impact Bitcoin prices and market dynamics significantly. Miners’ selling behavior post-halving could influence the supply-demand balance, potentially affecting Bitcoin’s price trajectory in the months to come. Investors are advised to stay informed about market developments and adapt their strategies accordingly to navigate the post-halving landscape effectively.