Bitcoin price experienced fluctuations on Wednesday, Sept. 11, as traders analyzed the outcomes of the debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Bitcoin retreated to $56,700 from this week’s high of $58,000. In contrast, Trump-themed tokens like MAGA saw a decline of over 10% in the last 24 hours, while Kamala Horris tokens fell by a smaller margin, reflecting traders’ perception that Harris had a better performance. Polymarket’s odds shifted in her favor, giving her a 50% chance of winning in November.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are anticipated to perform well if Donald Trump wins the election due to his favorable views towards the industry. Trump has indicated plans to replace Gary Gensler, maintain the Bitcoins in government custody, and promote the U.S. as a leading crypto hub.

Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced inflows for the past two consecutive days, suggesting that investors are taking advantage of the dip. On Sept. 10, they added $116 million, followed by $28 million the previous day.

Another potential catalyst for Bitcoin is the continued decline in exchange reserves. Data reveals that these reserves have dropped to 2.35 million, the lowest level in years, significantly below the year-to-date high of over 2.71 million. Falling Bitcoin reserves indicate that many holders are not selling. Recently, reserves increased in July and early August due to liquidations by the German government and Mt. Gox.

The volume of stablecoins in reserves is also rising. Tether’s (USDT) market cap has surged to over $118 billion, while USD Coin (USDC) reached a record high of $35.2 billion. This combination of falling Bitcoin reserves and increasing stablecoin amounts signals that investors are poised to buy.

Falling Bitcoin reserves are a positive metric because they indicate that many holders are not selling.

Despite these positive signs, Bitcoin faces some significant risks ahead. The spread between the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages has continued to narrow, suggesting that a death cross may occur. Historically, financial assets tend to dive sharply when this pattern happens. In Bitcoin’s case, the last death cross led to a 65% decline in 2022.

Additionally, Bitcoin faces a major resistance, indicated by the descending trendline connecting the highest swings since March this year. For a clear bullish breakout to occur, Bitcoin will need to surpass this resistance and the year-to-date high of $73,800.

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