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Bitcoin’s Price Hinges on U.S. Jobs Report and ETF Inflows
Bitcoin’s short-term price trajectory is expected to be heavily influenced by the upcoming U.S. jobs report and a steady increase in ETF inflows, according to insights from Bitfinex analysts. The cryptocurrency market is closely watching for signals that could shape Bitcoin’s performance in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin’s Potential to Reach $125,000
Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially climb to $125,000 by the end of June, provided macroeconomic conditions remain favorable. Bitfinex analysts have identified Friday’s non-farm payroll report as a critical factor. The report is anticipated to reveal a slowdown in employment, with forecasts for new non-farm payrolls ranging between 125,000 and 130,000, a decrease from April’s figure of 177,000.
A weaker-than-expected jobs report could have a bullish impact on Bitcoin. Such a scenario might accelerate the Federal Reserve’s timeline for interest rate cuts, which typically benefits risk assets like BTC. According to the analysts, “If Bitcoin maintains support above $105,000, it could target the $120,000–$125,000 range in June. This will not stem solely from labor market data but could act as one of multiple catalysts prompting faster-than-expected rate cuts by the Fed.”
Impact of a Stronger Jobs Report
On the flip side, a stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll report could reduce the likelihood of immediate rate cuts. This outcome would likely bolster the U.S. dollar while negatively impacting Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. As the dollar strengthens, the appeal of risk assets may diminish, potentially capping Bitcoin’s upward momentum.
Additionally, the outcome of the jobs report is expected to have a ripple effect on other factors influencing Bitcoin’s price, including ETF inflows. These investment flows are closely tied to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions and the overall strength of the dollar.
Investor Sentiment Ahead of the Jobs Report
Investor sentiment remains split ahead of Friday’s crucial non-farm payrolls data due to mixed signals from recent labor market reports. For instance, the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated labor market strength, with job openings rising to 7.39 million in April, up from 7.2 million in March.
However, contrasting data from the ADP private payrolls report painted a less optimistic picture. The report showed just 37,000 new jobs added in the private sector, significantly below the expected 110,000. Breaking this down further, small businesses shed 13,000 jobs, large firms cut 3,000, while midsized companies added 49,000 roles.
While the U.S. labor market remains resilient overall, employers are increasingly wary of potential economic headwinds, including the impact of U.S. tariffs on key trading partners. These uncertainties add to the complexity of predicting Bitcoin’s near-term price movements.
Key Takeaways for Bitcoin Investors
For cryptocurrency investors, the following points are worth noting as markets react to the latest economic data:
- Weaker-than-expected jobs data: Could accelerate Federal Reserve rate cuts, boosting Bitcoin and other risk assets.
- Stronger-than-expected jobs data: May delay rate cuts, strengthening the dollar and potentially pressuring Bitcoin’s price.
- ETF inflows: A critical factor to watch, as they are influenced by interest rates and broader market sentiment.
As the U.S. labor market remains a focal point, Bitcoin investors should stay informed about macroeconomic developments and their potential impact on cryptocurrency prices.
