Bitcoin ETFs and exchanges now have up to eight times more influence on the market compared to miners, according to a recent report. The diminishing sell-side pressure from miners with each halving is highlighted in a new analysis by Glassnode. Meanwhile, centralized exchanges and ETF providers are exerting significantly more impact, illustrating a notable market shift.

The largest pool of Bitcoin monitored by Glassnode is held in centralized exchanges (CEXs), amounting to about three million BTC. This represents roughly one-seventh of the total Bitcoin supply that will ever exist. Additionally, the 11 firms that have issued Bitcoin spot price ETFs have seen a surge in popularity since January. These firms collectively hold 887,000 BTC on behalf of investors, creating increased sell-side pressure during significant outflows.

“The majority was distributed over a very short window between July 7 and 10, where over 39.8k BTC flowed out of labeled wallets. Interestingly, this sell-side occurred after the market had bottomed around $54,000 — suggesting market front-ran the news.”

Miners, after excluding the vast reserves held by Satoshi Nakamoto, currently hold around 705,000 BTC. Glassnode notes that it has been a challenging period for Bitcoin’s price, exacerbated by the German government’s offloading of close to 50,000 BTC within a few weeks.

Government sell-offs of crypto, while concerning to everyday investors, are relatively rare. Although ETH ETFs are not expected to match the demand of their BTC counterparts, Wall Street could significantly influence Ether’s performance. Given that ETH supply has been considerably squeezed through staking, the circulating amount of ETH could diminish rapidly.

Compared to Bitcoin, there has been “notably less interest” in Ether relative to the 2021 bull run, when daily ETH exchange flows were almost on par with BTC. This suggests that speculative interest in 2024 has been comparatively muted, aligning with the generally weaker performance of ETH relative to BTC since the 2022 cycle lows.

Returning to Bitcoin, it’s noteworthy that the number of HODLers in profit has remained robust, even during the German government sell-offs that drove Bitcoin to lows of $53,500. At that point, approximately 25% of coins were at an unrealized loss.

“This suggests that the degree of speculative interest in 2024 has been comparatively muted, and aligns with the generally weaker performance of ETH relative to BTC since the 2022 cycle lows.”

Interestingly, 66% of the BTC held by short-term holders fell into the red during this period — one of the most significant declines ever recorded. For long-term holders, the proportion of their supply held in profit experienced only a negligible shift, indicating that relatively few investors from the heights of the 2021 bull run still hold their coins.

Bitcoin’s price has seen a notable recovery now that the German government has ceased its Bitcoin sell-offs, with BTC nearly reaching $68,500. Analysts have likened this to “relief” that the worst of the selling pressure is over. However, diminished trading volumes during the summer months could continue to pose a challenge.

All eyes are now on whether Bitcoin can breach the psychologically significant barrier of $70,000, a level not reached since June. Beyond that, surpassing the all-time high of $73,750 established on March 14, 2014, would send Bitcoin into unprecedented territory and likely lead to a renewed surge in ETF inflows.

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