Ronin (ron) 
“`html
Why Are Traders Piling Into $300K Bitcoin Calls While Hedging at $85K Fades? Is this a signal the market is bracing for significant movements?
Bitcoin Price Reclaims $107,000 as Political Jitters Fade
Bitcoin (BTC) has shown remarkable resilience after a turbulent week, where political tensions briefly disrupted market sentiment. A public clash between U.S. President Donald Trump and Elon Musk pushed BTC prices toward the $100,000 mark, sparking concerns about short-term stability.
However, the decline was short-lived. Over the weekend, Bitcoin began recovering, and as of June 9, it trades around $107,800, marking a nearly 2% increase in the past 24 hours.
Institutional activity continues to play a critical role in Bitcoin’s rebound. Many companies are re-evaluating Bitcoin as a long-term treasury asset, emphasizing its value beyond trading. For instance, MicroStrategy has announced a $1 billion capital raise through perpetual preferred stock, with plans to allocate a portion of the proceeds to additional Bitcoin purchases.
Similarly, Metaplanet has set an ambitious target to accumulate 210,000 BTC by the end of 2027, a significant increase from its original goal of 21,000 BTC. These developments highlight growing confidence in Bitcoin amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.
Market participants are also eyeing key economic indicators this week, such as the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). These data points could influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 99% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50% at its June 17 meeting.
Against this backdrop, let’s analyze Bitcoin options data to understand whether traders are preparing for more upside or bracing for a potential pullback.
BTC Options Data Shows Strong Bullish Lean Into June Expiry
The June 27 Bitcoin options expiry on Deribit reflects one of the most focused setups in recent months. Total open interest stands at 123,528 contracts, comprising 77,077 calls and 46,451 puts. This results in a put/call ratio of 0.60, underscoring a strong bullish sentiment.
The Max Pain level, where the most aggregate losses occur across both calls and puts, is positioned at $100,000. Above this level, bullish positioning becomes evident, with a notable spike in open interest at the $120,000 strike, signaling it as a short-term upside target.
Interestingly, there has been a surge in call open interest at the $300,000 strike. While there is some activity at $200,000 and $220,000, the $300,000 level stands out, likely representing tail-risk hedging or asymmetric upside protection by institutions or large spot holders.
On the downside, the $85,000 strike remains the most concentrated area for open interest. Although some protective positions exist between $60,000 and $90,000, the volume diminishes significantly below $85,000.
If Bitcoin trades within the $95,000 to $105,000 range as expiry nears, many options buyers on both sides could face losses due to time decay.
In contrast, the July 25 expiry shows a more evenly distributed structure. Total open interest is lower at 40,267 contracts, with 25,109 calls and 15,158 puts. The put/call ratio remains at 0.60, maintaining a bullish inclination but with a more measured approach.
Call open interest for July is spread across key levels at $120,000, $130,000, $140,000, and $150,000, with relatively even distribution. Unlike June, there are no outsized bets far above current spot prices. The Max Pain for July is positioned at $104,000, slightly higher than June’s $100,000, indicating a gradual upward shift in pricing expectations.
On the downside, the $85,000 strike remains the key zone for bearish hedging, with minimal put interest below $70,000, suggesting a low probability of extreme downside moves.
Overall, June reflects more aggressive positioning at higher levels, particularly $120,000 and $300,000, while July represents a more technical and layered approach. Bearish hedging remains limited, with $85,000 acting as the primary downside defense.
BTC Breakout Gains Traction With Support From Options Flows
Bitcoin’s reclaim of the $107,000 level has prompted analysts to consider whether this move signals the beginning of a broader breakout. The return above this critical level suggests a potential short-term structural shift after several days of bearish price action.
Analysts have identified immediate upside targets at $108,300 and $110,000. Sustained movement through this range could enable Bitcoin to extend higher without requiring additional catalysts.
Notably, recent options data supports this bullish narrative. Open interest for the June 27 expiry is heavily concentrated at the $120,000 call strike, reflecting a clear bias toward higher prices. Should Bitcoin close above $110,000, these positions may gain delta exposure, potentially driving further price momentum as traders hedge through spot or perpetual contracts.
On the downside, bearish positioning remains limited, with the $85,000 strike acting as the most meaningful put volume. This indicates that the market is not pricing in a sharp drop below this level.
Whether Bitcoin can maintain its position above these levels will largely depend on macroeconomic data releases this week. As always, conduct thorough research, trade responsibly, and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Disclosure: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
“`
