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The likelihood of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving spot cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for Solana, Litecoin, and XRP by 2025 has surged to 95%, according to Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas. This updated forecast reflects growing optimism surrounding regulatory approval for these crypto-focused investment products.

High Approval Odds for Major Cryptocurrencies

In their latest analysis shared on June 20, 2025, Seyffart and Balchunas provided a detailed outlook for several cryptocurrency ETFs. Besides the 95% probability assigned to Solana, Litecoin, and XRP spot ETFs, other crypto ETF filings for assets like Dogecoin, Cardano, Avalanche, Hedera, and Polkadot were given a 90% chance of approval in 2025.

Additional optimism surrounds crypto basket or index ETF filings from firms such as Grayscale, Hashdex, Bitwise, and Franklin Templeton. These filings also received a 95% probability of approval within the next six months. Many of these applications face final SEC deadlines in early July, making the coming months pivotal for cryptocurrency ETFs.

SEC Engagement Fuels Optimism

The analysts attribute their heightened confidence to increased engagement from the SEC. Seyffart noted that this interaction indicates a positive shift in the regulator’s stance toward crypto ETFs. He stated, “Engagement from the SEC is a very positive sign in our opinion.”

The SEC has acknowledged the 19b-4 forms for these applications, signaling a potential view of the underlying cryptocurrencies as commodities.

Additionally, the analysts highlighted the existence of Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated futures markets for many of these assets as a key factor supporting the SEC’s potential approval.

Timeline for Approvals

While the probability of approval seems high, the timeline remains uncertain. Analysts suggest that approvals could occur within weeks or closer to the final deadlines later in the year. Most applications face final SEC decision dates in October and November.

Seyffart elaborated, “The timing of these approvals/launches is more uncertain. It could be something we’re talking about in the next month or two, or it could wait until October or later.” Despite this uncertainty, the consensus among experts is that approval is inevitable, describing it as a “matter of when, not if.”

Key Takeaways for Investors

For investors interested in cryptocurrency ETFs, here are some key points to consider:

  • High Approval Odds: Spot ETFs for Solana, Litecoin, and XRP have a 95% chance of approval, with other major cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin and Cardano not far behind at 90%.
  • Regulatory Momentum: Increased engagement from the SEC and existing CFTC-regulated futures markets are positive indicators for the crypto ETF landscape.
  • Uncertain Timeline: Approvals could happen within weeks or closer to final deadlines in late 2025.

As the regulatory environment evolves, the approval of cryptocurrency ETFs could mark a significant milestone for the industry, potentially driving increased adoption and investment opportunities.

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