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Nansen Research has identified key macroeconomic factors this week that could influence the probability of a crypto market bottom between April and June 2025. Principal researcher Aurelie Barthere shared insights on April 1, 2025, emphasizing the importance of upcoming data releases and policy announcements in shaping market sentiment.

Key Macroeconomic Indicators to Watch

Investors across financial markets, including cryptocurrencies, are set to focus on several crucial factors this week. These include the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, tariff developments, and U.S. economic growth metrics such as manufacturing output and employment data.

According to Nansen, this week—dubbed “Liberation Week”—is anticipated to bring critical data disclosures and potential political updates. Combined with existing market trends, these factors could offer insights into the future price direction of Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies. Barthere also noted that a similar outlook applies to traditional financial assets, with equities experiencing a decline in recent weeks.

Tariff Concerns and Their Impact on Crypto

Tariff-related uncertainties remain a significant driver of volatility in both crypto and broader risk assets. Recent announcements of 25% auto tariffs, along with the potential for reciprocal measures, continue to weigh on market sentiment. However, Nansen researchers suggest that constructive negotiations and economic concessions between major economies such as the Eurozone, Japan, and China could provide a positive boost.

The Role of Federal Reserve Policy

The Federal Reserve’s approach to interest rates is another critical factor this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Friday, and markets are eager for clarity on the likelihood of rate cuts this year. According to Nansen, the Fed’s willingness to prioritize growth concerns, even with core inflation nearing 3% year-over-year, would be a reassuring signal for investors.

“We would like to hear Fed Chair Powell reiterate his FOMC’s press conference rather dovish stance, e.g., concerns over growth will be prioritized and the Fed will be comfortable with cutting rates even with core inflation close to 3% YoY,” Nansen stated.

Employment Data and Market Sentiment

This Friday’s non-farm payroll data for March is another critical point of focus. Nansen highlights that employment figures between economist consensus of 139,000 and the six-month average of 191,000, coupled with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, would be seen as favorable by investors. These numbers could alleviate concerns over slowing economic growth, which has already contributed to an 11% drop in the S&P 500 index.

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin and Altcoins

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price has struggled to break above its 200-day moving average, signaling continued resistance for the leading cryptocurrency. Altcoins are also facing selling pressure, with many experiencing “dead crosses” that suggest weak market sentiment. For now, any positive macroeconomic news could provide a much-needed boost to the fragile crypto market.

Outlook for the Crypto Market

Despite current challenges, Nansen remains cautiously optimistic. The firm maintains a 70% probability that the crypto market will reach a bottom between April and June 2025. This outlook is contingent on how macroeconomic factors unfold in the coming weeks and whether investor sentiment improves in response to favorable developments.

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