Bitcoin Uncertainty Grows as Key U.S. Data Looms Amid Volatility

Bitcoin is navigating uncertain territory, struggling to reclaim six-figure prices as investors await key economic data that could dictate the market’s next move. Since its record high of $109,114 on January 20, Bitcoin has dropped about 11%, trading at $97,300 as of February 10.

Trump’s Tariff Talk Adds to Market Volatility

Donald Trump’s latest tariff talk has added to market volatility, with a 25% blanket tariff on steel and aluminum imports on the table, alongside “reciprocal tariffs” on every country. A formal announcement is expected as early as February 11 or 12, with steel tariffs possibly taking effect even sooner on February 10.

MACD Indicator Turns Negative for the First Time Since October

A concerning sign is that the MACD 12,26 momentum indicator has turned negative for the first time since October 2024. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence measures the difference between two moving averages — the 12-day and 26-day Exponential Moving Averages — to track momentum shifts.

The last time MACD turned negative was in April 2024; it stayed that way for about six months. During that period, Bitcoin fell from $64,000 in late April to $49,000 by August 2024, a 23% decline, before the trend finally reversed.

A Big Week for Economic Data

Bitcoin’s fate this week hangs in the balance as a flurry of key economic data approaches. With inflation numbers, labor market updates, and Federal Reserve signals all set to drop in the coming days, investors are on high alert.

CPI Inflation Report

Markets will get their first major macro trigger at 8:30 a.m. ET on February 12, when the Consumer Price Index report for January is released. CPI, a key inflation gauge, measures the cost of living and is closely watched by investors.

Analysts anticipate that consumer prices increased by 2.9% year-over-year, the same rate as in December. Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, is predicted to ease slightly to 3.1% from 3.2% in December.

Powell’s Testimony Holds the Key

All eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as he testifies before Congress on February 11-12, offering the latest insights into monetary policy.

Markets are watching for any hint about the Fed’s next move. Since September 2024, the central bank has cut rates by 100 basis points, bringing them to 4.25%-4.50% as inflation cooled from its 2022 highs.

Jobless Claims and Producer Prices

The next key data release arrives on February 13, with the initial jobless claims report and the Producer Price Index.

Jobless claims will offer a fresh look at the labor market. The latest data from the last week of January showed initial claims rising to 219,000, above expectations, while continuing claims climbed to 1.88 million.

Retail Sales and Consumer Strength

The final major data point arrives on February 14 with the release of U.S. retail sales figures.

Consumer spending is a key driver of economic growth, and the report will indicate whether households are cutting back or continuing to spend despite higher interest rates.

Volatility Ahead?

Crypto analysts are sizing up Bitcoin’s next move as a key week unfolds, with economic data and Fed’s signals set to shake up market sentiment.

Michaël van de Poppe remains firmly in the bullish camp, suggesting that Bitcoin could test $105,000 this week and possibly break into new all-time highs before the month is over.

However, not everyone is convinced that the market is ready for another leg up just yet. Analyst Decode warns that $91,000 is a key level to watch, and if Bitcoin fails to hold it, the drop could be fast and steep, dragging prices into the $70,000 before any meaningful recovery.

With a week packed full of potential market-moving events, traders should be ready for sharp swings in either direction.

Key Takeaways:

  • Bitcoin faces uncertainty as it struggles to reclaim six-figure prices.
  • Key economic data, including CPI inflation report, Powell’s testimony, jobless claims, and retail sales, will dictate the market’s next move.
  • MACD indicator turns negative for the first time since October, a concerning sign for Bitcoin’s momentum.
  • Crypto analysts are sizing up Bitcoin’s next move, with some predicting a potential break into new all-time highs and others warning of a potential drop.

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