VanEck’s Head of Digital Asset Research, Matthew Sigel, has provided a detailed forecast for the cryptocurrency market through 2025, offering investors insights into potential price movements and market trends.

Projected Price Movements

Sigel predicts that Bitcoin will reach $180,000 in the first quarter of 2025, before experiencing a correction. Meanwhile, Ethereum is expected to reach beyond $6,000, and other coins like Solana and Sui could achieve $500 and $10, respectively.

However, Sigel anticipates that this initial peak will be followed by a market correction, with Bitcoin pulling back 30% and altcoins experiencing deeper declines of up to 60% during the summer months.

Identifying Market Tops

To help investors identify potential market tops, Sigel highlights several key indicators to monitor, including:

  • Sustained high funding rates: When traders consistently pay funding rates above 10% for three months or longer to bet on Bitcoin price increases, it typically indicates excessive speculation in the market.
  • Unrealized profits among Bitcoin holders: When a large proportion of holders maintain paper gains with a profit-to-cost ratio exceeding 70%, it often signals market euphoria.
  • Bitcoin’s market dominance: A drop below 40% could signal excessive speculation in altcoins, typical of late-cycle market behavior.

Market Momentum and Regulatory Developments

The research attributes current market momentum largely to the anticipated crypto-friendly leadership team under Donald Trump’s administration, including JD Vance as VP and Paul Atkins as SEC Chair. This suggests a shift from previous restrictive policies toward a framework that positions Bitcoin as a strategic asset.

Following the summer correction, Sigel forecasts a market recovery in fall 2025, with major cryptocurrencies likely to reclaim their previous all-time highs by year-end. This projection assumes continued institutional adoption and supportive regulatory developments under the new administration.

Investors can use these price targets and warning signals to inform their investment decisions, while acknowledging the impact of political developments on the crypto market.

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