Matthew Sigel, the head of digital assets at VanEck, has highlighted the current market conditions as highly favorable for Bitcoin, the world’s leading digital asset.

Bitcoin’s Bullish Outlook Amid U.S. Election

In an interview with CNBC’s Squawk Box on October 28, Sigel discussed how the upcoming U.S. election could significantly influence Bitcoin’s price. His comments come as BTC recently climbed back above $68,000, showing resilience despite recent market pressures. Whether Bitcoin will surpass the $70,000 threshold before the November 5, 2024, election remains to be seen.

Current Market Performance

At its current price of $68,800, Bitcoin has seen a remarkable increase of over 55% year-to-date and more than 100% over the past year. Sigel noted that Bitcoin is exhibiting patterns similar to those observed before the 2020 U.S. election.

“This is a very bullish setup for Bitcoin into the election. We saw the exact same pattern in 2020 where Bitcoin lagged with low volatility and then once a winner was announced, we had a high volatility rally as new buyers entered the market,” Sigel explained.

Correlation with Political Events

Sigel also addressed Bitcoin’s recent surge and its potential correlation with betting odds favoring a Donald Trump victory. According to Sigel, Trump is perceived as a more pro-crypto candidate compared to Kamala Harris. For instance, Polymarket odds have shifted significantly from Harris to Trump, who is currently at 66%.

However, Sigel emphasized that Bitcoin’s most critical correlations are its negative relationship with the U.S. dollar and its positive correlation with money supply growth (M2). Factors such as the Federal Reserve’s policy changes and seller exhaustion, particularly after significant sell-offs by the German government, suggest a reacceleration of money growth.

Potential Impact of U.S. Sovereign Debt Downgrade

Additionally, Sigel mentioned that Moody’s is expected to downgrade U.S. sovereign debt, a scenario that could further bolster the bullish outlook for Bitcoin.

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