Optimism Token Faces Continued Bear Market Challenges

The Optimism token remains entrenched in a bear market as the recent rally in the broader cryptocurrency market has stalled. As of October 10, Optimism, a prominent layer-2 token, was trading at $1.5140, marking a 70% decline from its highest point this year.

Market Share Decline

One key reason for Optimism’s slump is its declining market share within the industry. The network has been outpaced in significant areas like decentralized finance (DeFi) by layer-1 networks such as Avalanche and Sui. Additionally, it has been surpassed by other popular layer-2 networks like Base and Arbitrum.

Optimism’s total value locked (TVL) in the DeFi sector has decreased to $627 million, down from its year-to-date high of $1.04 billion. The volume of stablecoins within its ecosystem has also dropped from $1.35 billion to $1.17 billion.

DEX Index Industry Performance

In the decentralized exchange (DEX) index industry, Optimism’s role has waned. The weekly volume has declined by 24% to $503 million. In contrast, Sui and Base have seen their volumes increase by 51% and 5%, respectively, during the same period.

Airdrop Impact

Optimism’s price fell further after developers announced the fifth airdrop, which unlocked 10 million OP tokens to 54 million addresses. The network now has 500 million OP tokens remaining for future airdrops, indicating potential further dilution for existing holders.

β€œOnchain together, benefit together. 10M+ OP has been allocated to 54k+ unique addresses. As of today, roughly 550M OP remains for future airdrops.”

This dilution is significant as Optimism has a circulating supply of 1.25 billion tokens against a maximum supply of 4.29 billion. According to recent data, the network unlocked 49.19 million tokens in September, with the final unlock scheduled for 2026.

Futures Market Decline

Optimism’s volume in the futures market has also seen a downturn. Futures open interest dropped to $104 million on October 10, down from the year-to-date high of $327 million.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the OP token has been in a strong downtrend since peaking at $4.86 in March. It remains below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures the rate of change, is also pointing downwards.

Optimism has formed a bearish flag pattern, suggesting the potential for a further bearish breakout. If this occurs, the token could drop and retest the support at $1.06, its lowest point in August.

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