Osmosis (osmo) 
The native cryptocurrency of the Avalanche blockchain is currently trading at a critical juncture amid trader indecision, as downward forces threaten to end July on a bearish note. Avalanche (AVAX) is trading at $26.99, down more than 6% over the past 24 hours and over 11% this week.
AVAX has experienced significant price volatility over the past four months. On the daily chart, a pronounced correction is evident from the asset’s peak near $65.39 in March 2024. This peak was followed by a steep decline, reaching a low of $21.8 in April. Before this collapse, AVAX bulls mounted robust defense toward the end of March, spurred by news of increased adoption after Avalanche announced participation in a partnership between a banking group and Chainlink Labs.
The drop below the $22 mark pushed AVAX below Toncoin on the list of largest assets, creating a critical support level. The price found some stability and began a mild recovery. The Bollinger Bands indicate periods of consolidation between $29.24 and $41.80, suggesting a range-bound market during this phase.
Recently, AVAX has been hovering around the $27 mark, with a slight rebound noted from the June low. However, the price remains below key Fibonacci retracement levels, particularly the 0.236 level at $32.03. This resistance level, combined with proximity to the lower Bollinger Band, suggests cautious trading sentiment. The Klinger Oscillator indicates mixed signals, and a stronger positive divergence would be required to confirm a more sustained bullish reversal.
A stronger positive divergence would be required to confirm a more sustained bullish reversal.
On the weekly chart, Avalanche has formed a long-term symmetrical triangle, usually indicating a potential breakout direction. The resistance line, sloping downward from the March high, intersects with a rising support line from the historical lows of around $8.72 in September 2023. The current price position near the apex of this triangle suggests an imminent breakout, though the direction remains uncertain. AVAX is also witnessing decreasing volume, indicating a period of market indecision as it approaches the end of July with a 7% drop.
The reduction in volume often precedes significant price movement as traders await confirmation of the breakout direction. Critical levels to watch include the local high of $41.8 for a bullish breakout and the support zone near $21.80 for a bearish breakdown.
Data from IntoTheBlock on the volume of large buys and sells confirm the indecision in the market. Bulls have purchased 25.82 million AVAX over the past week, while bears have sold 25.64 million tokens during this period.
A break above the $40 mark could signal a bullish continuation, potentially targeting $55.85, which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci level. Conversely, a drop below the $21.80 support could trigger further declines, possibly revisiting previous lows.
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